With hurricane season beginning June 1 and running through Nov. 30, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials are predicting the first below-average Atlantic hurricane season since 2015.
What you need to know
The latest NOAA forecasts are expecting residents along the Atlantic Ocean and the surrounding areas to see a less active hurricane season than normal, with a 55% chance of a below-normal season, NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs said at a May 21 news conference.
Jacobs said this is due to an expected El Nino as well as slightly warmer ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and weaker trade winds, which support fewer tropical storms and hurricane development.
According to predictions, the NOAA is forecasting a range of eight to 14 named storms in the Atlantic Ocean with winds of 39 mph or higher, including:
- Three to six hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher
- One to three major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher
What’s new?
The NOAA’s National Hurricane Center is set to implement an improved version of the tropical cyclone graphic to include watches and warnings for inland areas, officials said. The center will also begin testing an experimental version of the tropical cyclone graphics to include a greater range of possibilities for tracking the direction and timing of a storm.
NOAA has also been working on flood inundation mapping, which provides a visualization of streets likely to go underwater, officials said. The map currently covers about 60% of the population and will expand to nearly 100% by late September.
Houston is also one of more than 60 U.S. cities that are part of an experimental urban rain rate dashboard, which provides a real-time look at the probability of extreme rainfall a week in advance.
Staying prepared
Although the season is predicted to be below average, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said it’s important to remember it only takes one storm to make it a bad season.
“Although El Nino’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” Graham said. “Preparing now for hurricane season—and not waiting for a storm to threaten—is essential for staying ahead of any storm.”
According to its website, NOAA recommends residents prepare by:
- Developing an evacuation plan
- Assembling disaster supplies, including food, water, batteries, chargers, a radio and cash
- Checking on insurance—including flood insurance—and documenting their possessions
- Creating a communication plan with a handwritten list of contacts
- Strengthening homes by trimming trees, installing storm shutters and sealing outside wall openings